Regression to the mean is the natural tendency of things to even out over time.
If you flip a coin ten times and it comes up heads every time, the next time you flip it is more likely to come up tails. This is because tails is the more common outcome - it's "regressed" towards the mean.
This mental model can be used in daily life and work to help you make better decisions and think more clearly.
When you're making a decision, it's important to consider regression to the mean. This is because our natural tendency is to overestimate how good or bad something will be in the future based on how it is now.
For example, if you're considering quitting your job, you might think that things will always be this bad and you'll never be happy again. But it's important to remember that things have a tendency to even out over time, so the situation is likely to improve.
It's also important to keep in mind when considering predictions and forecasts. We often tend to believe that because something has happened in the past, it will continue to happen in the future.
But regression to the mean tells us that this is often not the case. Things have a tendency to even out over time, so we should be careful not to give too much weight to past events when making predictions about the future.
This mental model can be useful in many different situations. The next time you're making a decision, take a step back and consider how regression to the mean might be affecting your thinking. And when you're considering predictions and forecasts, remember that things have a tendency to even out over time.
By keeping this mental model in mind, you can make better decisions and think more clearly.