Inference-Observation Confusion happens when people make inferences (interpretations) about a situation based on their observations, instead of waiting for more information to become available.

What is Inference-Observation Confusion?

People often fall victim to this bias because they want to find an answer as quickly as possible. However, making assumptions can lead to inaccurate judgments and incorrect decisions.

For example, let’s say you see your neighbor carrying a large box into their house. You might infer that they are moving, even though you don’t have all the information.

But maybe the large box is just something they bought from the store. If you don’t have all the information, it’s best to wait before making any assumptions.

What are the causes of Inference-Observation Confusion?

There are several reasons why people might fall victim to Inference-Observation Confusion. One reason is that humans are hardwired to make quick decisions. This is because, in the past, quick decisions were often necessary for survival. For example, if you saw a large animal coming towards you, you would need to make a quick decision about whether to run away or stand your ground.

Nowadays, we don’t often need to make life-or-death decisions. However, our brains still default to making quick decisions. This can lead to us making inaccurate judgments because we don’t have all the information.

Another reason why people might fall victim to Inference-Observation Confusion is confirmation bias. This is when people look for information that confirms their existing beliefs, and ignore information that contradicts their beliefs.

For example, let’s say you believe that all politicians are corrupt. If you see a politician doing something unethical, you might think “See, I told you they were all corrupt!” However, if you saw a politician doing something good, you might ignore it or write it off as a fluke.

What are the effects of Inference-Observation Confusion?

Inference-Observation Confusion can lead to inaccurate judgments and incorrect decisions. This is because people are more likely to make assumptions that confirm their existing beliefs.

For example, if you believe that all politicians are corrupt, you might be more likely to assume that a politician is corrupt even if you don’t have all the information.

Inference-Observation Confusion can also lead to problems in relationships. This is because people often make assumptions about what other people are thinking or feeling.

For example, let’s say your partner doesn’t respond to your text right away. You might infer that they are mad at you, even though there could be a perfectly innocent explanation (e.g., they didn’t hear their phone). Making assumptions about other people’s thoughts and feelings can lead to communication problems and conflict in relationships.

How can you avoid Inference-Observation Confusion?

There are several steps you can take to avoid Inference-Observation Confusion in your own life. First, it’s important to be aware of the bias and why it happens. This will help you recognize when you might be falling victim to the bias.

Second, try to take your time when making decisions. This will help you avoid making quick, inaccurate judgments.

Third, try to gather as much information as possible before making a decision. This will help you make more accurate judgments.

Finally, try to be aware of your own confirmation bias. This will help you avoid looking for information that only confirms your existing beliefs.

In conclusion, Inference-Observation Confusion is a common bias that can lead to inaccurate judgments and incorrect decisions. However, there are steps you can take to avoid the bias in your own life.

By being aware of the bias and taking your time to gather information, you can make more accurate decisions and avoid conflict in your relationships.